So, I got this email from Borders Books’ CEO Mike Edwards at 11:50-something PM last night (As did all Borders’ customers):
Now bigger so you can actually read it:
I wonder what the future of publishing will be? 10 years from now will books, magazines and newspapers be completely obsolete??
But what will everyone use to line their birdcages? 
This is hilarious… I guess I won’t be sending her any of my product.
If only they could send the whole Jersey Shore cast something that would sterilize the lot of them… do something good for mankind, please!
A little fluffy… but that’s okay… (article comes via sellinghalloween.com)
Make It Gory
By Joseph Dobrian, Contributing Editor
When the stock market tumbled in the fall of 2008, costume sales remained relatively strong, but Halloween decor sales suffered, and suppliers fear that as the recession continues, decor will continue to struggle at retail – particularly pricier products. And although outdoor decor has been the focus of shoppers’ attention for the past few years, sales of indoor decor seem to be holding up better as shoppers tighten their budgets.
Suppliers say that price is a major consideration for Halloween decor shoppers, especially now, when budgets are tight. “Expensive outdoor decor is what’s suffering,” says Scott Wentworth, vice president of marketing for Paper Magic. “What is selling for us is inexpensive indoor products that offer bang for the buck. Our ‘Spooky Scenes,’ for example, let you convert your living room into a Halloween dungeon for less than $50.”
Wentworth reports that he also has high hopes for “Window Smashers,” a line in which Halloween characters appear to be crashing through a wall or window. Also attracting attention from buyers, according to Wentworth, are “motionactivated items, some with sound, like a candy bowl with a rat’s tail, which features a squeaking rat sound.” Wentworth reports that his company’s line has gotten a bit more gory for 2009. “We have the Saw license, which is about as gory as it gets,” he notes. “We’ve introduced a line of Saw body parts that look like they’ve been dead or waterlogged for some time. One major trend I’ve noticed in Halloween decor is towards more realism. Scenes are more realistic, less cartoonish, very detailed. That’s been a trend for a long time.”
Shelli Lissick, spokesperson for Midwest/Seasons of Cannon Falls, also emphasizes the price-consciousness of the current market. “We’re seeing an increased demand for more sophisticated, yet affordable, Halloween decor that makes a big impact,” she notes, citing Midwest’s new chalkboard witch, wall-decal sets and Halloween LED magnets as examples of products that are attracting attention currently.
Lissick lists green witches, skeletons and skull-and-crossbones images as popular themes among trendy Halloween consumers. “Skeletons and skulls are a classic for Halloween, but they’ve made their way into the mainstream as a popular icon in fashion, jewelry and even punk-influenced home decor,” says Lissick. “Thanks to this influence, they have made their way to the height of popularity in Halloween decor, too.” As for green witches, which adorn a number of Midwest’s new Halloween products, Lissick traces their popularity directly to the Broadway musical Wicked, which was hugely popular among teenagers and young adults.
Phil Talio, sales manager at Fun World, says that, in general, the more gory and scary a decor product is, the better it will sell, and, he notes, even mass merchandisersand supermarkets are starting to carry more daring products. “They are getting a little more risque,” he says. “For years, it was taboo to have the image of a rat in a place where food was sold, but that’s less the case now. Still, it’s the specialty stores and drugstores that do better with scary products.”
One trend for 2009, Talio predicts, will be “making your house look like a cemetery.” Fun World is ready with skulls, headstones and zombie characters. Says Talio, “Our ‘Ground Breaker’ is a zombie or skeleton that looks like it’s coming out of the ground. We produced a basic model some years back; the new model features lighting and movement – and it screams.”
Gail Weiner, vice president of Penn Distributing, also voices concern about price points, and says this challenge is prompting her company to move toward lower-priced items and less season-specific decor.
“It’s easy for a consumer to justify a $10 item,” she says, “but it’s harder to justify a $100 purchase, or even $50. It’s also easier to justify the cost of an item you can display from September 1st through Thanksgiving. Therefore, we’re going in the direction of harvest and autumn themes.”
Weiner notes that the one product category that shoppers seem willing to pay more for is LED-lighted decor. She explains that consumers are becoming more educated about the ecological and practical benefits of the technology and are choosing LED-lighted products over lower-priced alternatives. “We’re putting LED technology into items that sell well at lower price points, like window decorations,” she says.
Marjorie Reed, director of product development at Roman, Inc., reports that her company offers Halloween novelties and yard art but that Roman’s Halloween night-lights continue to be its most popular Halloween collection. //
It’s that time of year again… Black Friday is upon us and there are predictions, bargains and frightened retailers waiting to see what will happen when the race starts next week.
As a web “e-tailer” myself, I’m very worried that the large amount of holiday merchandise I purchased will sell… even if it’s marked way down. In the five years I had a physical location, the last 2 months accounted for over 40% of my annual sales. So… who knows what the rest of the year will bring (or what I’ll need to do to unload my wares… especially those things embellished Rudolph or Santa).
So… just to worry myself further, I’ve been doing some “light” reading on the subject of Black Friday and other retail predictions:
Black Friday deals may not signal retail comeback – Reuters, Friday Nov 20, 2009
Checklist: Is Your eCommerce Store Ready for Black Friday & Cyber Monday? – Drop Ship Access Blog, Friday Nov 20, 2009
The Ultimate Insider Black Friday Guide: Where to Go for the Best Deals – U.S. News & World Report, Thursday Nov 19, 2009
Black Friday: What We Know So Far – Time Magazine, Friday Nov 20, 2009
And finally… some positive news… (but really, it’s mostly opinion… but at least it gives me some discounting ideas & what other people may be doing as far as what/how/when to discount this season):
Black Friday And Cyber Monday Sales Set To Grow 1.8% – Internet Financial News, Friday Nov 20, 2009
Back to listing on my website… and planning out a strategy for next week! Good luck everyone… I hope we all empty our shelves and make a profit in the process!
We’ve been working on another business… it’s not another retail endeavor, but we’re very excited about it.
I truly miss retail. I find myself wandering the local stores and cleaning up their displays and merchandising for them. It’s built in, I can’t shut it off. I still have my website but I’ve been so neglectful. Even customers are writing to me giving me advice on how to spruce things up. I’m in denial.
I’ve sold on ebay since 1999. I sort of broke up with Ebay last spring when they stopped letting sellers leave feedback, raised their fees, cut back on power seller perks and generally told all of the small businesses to go to hell… but in a nice way. Donning my rose-colored glasses, I recently opened an Amazon.com shop, listed one thing and sold it almost immediately. I like the idea but wow, do they charge a lot for commission. This is how it works in a nutshell…
Again, it’s amazon selling 101 in a nutshell….but I was surprised that they were comparable to Ebay, as far as fees go, after you factor in Ebay’s purposely confusing multi-tiered fee system and paypal fees (Ebay has created a paypal monopoly recently, too. You have to use Paypal or your own merchant account. Period.). In my humble opinion, Amazon’s reputation is far superior to Ebay’s these days. But… that may be just me 
Ebay was good for the bargain and obscure item hunters. In this financial climate buyers are definitely looking for a bargain, but do you think they are searching for obscure treasures or items that remind them of their childhood? Ebay has a “hot list” showing which items are most searched for and which items are most purchased for any given month. I’m really curious… what’s been selling these days? Is Ebay still on top of their game after alienating their small business “work force”? Anywho…. there’s a good article regarding online shopping trends in 2009 via MSNBC…
Report: Online retail could reach $156B in 2009 by RACHEL METZ.
And Fortune magazine did an article about Amazon’s semi-recovery this January after a bleak holiday season. That’s promising.
I’ve never claimed I was a full fledged entrepreneur with a sharp business mind. I’ll say that again. My head is in merchandising, art, customer service and optimism (with a twist of bitchy)… not so much crunching numbers and writing business plans. Over the weekend, we met with the step-father of our business partner. He has started and sold multi-multi million dollar companies and he is quite brilliant. He openly admitted to sort of having a few false starts and stumbling his way through at least 10 other businesses, but a few really good decisions with his businesses have made him a wealthy man. It was fascinating to hear what he had to say. In short…S corps are tops, always have a business plan and never use the word “conservative”. Neat.
So, as we move forward with a non-glitzy online service business and I figure out how I’m going to re-do my online retail shop… I’m faced with all sort of questions. “Do I have the energy for this?!?” seems to top that list. Getting the momentum to move forward and keep it moving is an art in itself.
Some light reading… an article on customer service and Baby Boomers via newsfactor.com:
Boomers at Retail: A Cautionary Tale By Matt Thornhill
Retailers should view Circuit City as a cautionary tale. Media reports say that the self-inflicted mortal blow occurred back in 2007 when the company fired some 3,000 top-earning store sales people as a cost-cutting measure. Customer service did more than disappear: It got hired by Best Buy. Deep cuts in costs are de rigeur right now, but short-changing customer service could prove fatal.
On a personal note regarding that article… I worked in retail for a sporting good store for a number of years. At one point, management and the shareholders decided that their highly experienced, motivated and highly trained work force was too expensive and started cutting back hours to hire minimum wage workers. I watched our tight-knit group of co-workers leave one-by-one or get laid off abruptly. Some of them after being there over 20 years. We were a great group… outdoorsy and energetic skiers, runners, avid fishermen, campers, scuba divers etc etc. We loved sports and loved learning about the new equipment and it really shined through when we presented it to our customers. Our store was making the most net profit of any other store in the state (there were roughly 27 at the time). But, we were the first to start getting 15 and 16 year old kids with little to no sporting background to replace the “old timers” of 20+ years. It was completely evident that this new group didn’t care about selling sports-related items at all. For example, the first replacement in my department was a 16 year old pregnant girl with a beautiful display of hickeys on her neck and chest who dropped out of high school and was trying to get her GPA… God bless her. My first guess is that she hadn’t recently been in a pair of skis or enjoyed in-line roller skating on a regular basis. So, as sales started declining, management still didn’t think it had anything to do with their decision to shoo out the last generation of employees. First, the image of the business changed. More extreme and very “Mountain Dew”, if you catch my drift. Then, the salespeople on the floor were required to wear fluorescent yellow vests. That failed to revive the declining sales, too. One of my friends worked at the corporate headquarters and I got the latest scoop for years, but he left after getting fed up as well. I’m SO glad to hear that customer service is still paramount to a successful business. I know the owner started this business by wanting the latest and greatest skiing equipment, and a knowledgeable, passionate and ski-centric staff to run it… funny how that changed and funny how it could very well kill their little empire. Makes me chuckle just a wee bit because they sort of deserve it.
So, I won’t get my retail store until at least 2010… but at least I’m not stuck in a long lease, like so many. So many small shops are closing… it really breaks my heart. And something I never thought of… with all this retail closing, who is paying sales tax?
As the economy continues to tank, and as consumers tighten their grip on spending, there are fewer and fewer pennies flowing from shopping malls to cities, resulting in dramatic shortfalls in sales tax revenue — “the bread and butter” of general city funds. If a consumer spends a dollar and is charged 8 cents sales tax, cities generally get a penny of that.
And I betcha most cities were planning their budgets based on prior, golden years. Smart. Very smart.
And lastly… more projections from Bloomberg for retail and Walmart. This year’s forecast calls for more doom and gloom. Go team.
Not too long ago I mentioned that I opened my Washington Mutual statement, now JP Morgan, and my 11 or 12% interest rate was jacked up to 23.99%. I assumed I was late in a payment or went over my limit. I called and was told that they just “decided to raise the rates of some cardholders”. So, I quickly moved balances around, determined not to give them one red cent.
Then, my Bank of America account, which I opened just to do a balance transfer, decided it was going to jump from its “reasonable” rate of 18.99% to 24.99%. For no reason. And, when I called, they couldn’t tell me what happened either. I’m waiting for a call back (ha).
About a week later I got a letter in the mail from Citibank. I have 2 cards with them. The card that had a $12,000 limit was being brought down to $11,000 because of my credit score.
I panicked.
My credit score had taken a dip, but I’m not sure why. But a month later, it’s the highest it’s ever been. Ever.
Very curious. Think there could be some foul play at hand by any chance?
Did some searching and found a great article by Forbes Magazine:
Holiday Surprise: More Credit Card Fees
Liz Moyer, 12.05.08, 04:35 PM ESTReaching for the plastic to pay for holiday presents this season? Expect to find a few surprises in your statement next month.
Credit card issuers, struggling with falling profits and rising loan losses, are jacking up interest rates and adding fees, not to mention cutting back on credit lines just in time for the busy gift giving season. This coincides with rising joblessness and uncertain economic times that are making consumers feel a little anxious, if not a little desperate.
The combination makes consumers vulnerable to bad credit card deals. “If you’re not careful, you’re going to get yourself in a fix in a hurry,” says Curtis Arnold, founder of cardratings.com and author of the recently published How You Can Profit From Credit Cards…
…The card industry has spent the last year bracing for bad economic times. Earlier this year Bank of America (nyse: BAC – news – people ) told thousands of card holders, even those with good payment histories, that they would see their rates jump from 9% to 28% if they didn’t pay off their balances and stop using their cards. More card issuers are raising interest rates, even though the Federal Reserve is cutting short-term rates.
That’s a far cry from the days when card companies were stumbling over each other to woo new accounts. Bank mergers have consolidated power among the very largest card issuers, including JPMorgan Chase (nyse: JPM – news – people ), Citi and Bank of America, and stand-alone companies like American Express (nyse: AXP – news – people ), Capital One Financial (nyse: COF – news – people ) and Discover (nyse: DFS – news – people ). All of these companies are facing profit pressure from rising credit costs.
According to Consumer Reports, credit card balances as of September reached $971 billion, up from $825 billion at the end of 2005. The 30-day delinquency rate of 5% is the highest since late 2002. As the publishing and research company notes in its annual financial education campaign, “there’s no ‘bailout clause’ in your credit card contract.”
What better way for banks to make up for credit losses than to start charging for stuff they haven’t been charging for? JPMorgan, for example, told customers who carry large balances every month they will have a $10 monthly charge in addition to all of the other regular account fees and will see their minimum payment increase to 5% from 2% monthly.The bank explains it constantly evaluates the risks and costs of funding credit card loans. The fee, which goes into effect in January, affects less than 0.5% of accounts and applies to those who have carried large balances over two years “while making little progress in paying them off.”
Remember the annual fee? That disappeared in the years of heavy competition for new customers, but it is likely to make a strong comeback, according to Aite Group consultant Adil Moussa.
Card companies make their money in three ways: fees, interest and the fees that merchants pay them to accept their cards (the interchange fee, in industry parlance). Congress is debating whether to pressure card issuers to lower those merchant fees and otherwise limit the ability of banks to charge punitive fees, like late charges and over-limit fees, leaving banks with no choice but to resurrect the annual fee.
Uh-oh. I would say that 75% of the transactions at the store were credit cards. I’m sure that many of the mom-and-pop stores see heavy credit card sales, too. Where does that leave the small business? Not only are people going to be using credit cards less, they are going to freeze their spending because any disposable income they have will probably go towards debt. Stories like these are scaring the pants off the public. I’m sure that come January, there’s going to be a lot of noise about this.
I completely understand a slap on the wrist because heck, all of America, including the banks, have spent more than they have. But drowning us? After the bail out. Isn’t that just priceless?
What are the recession-proof businesses again?
1. Ice Cream – People eat out less but still splurge on Ice Cream (according to Ben & Jerry’s… take that with a grain of salt)
2. Lipstick – Women can’t afford that luxury bag but they will splurge on lipstick (really?)
3. Hollywood – Movies, video games etc. But what if SAG strikes… then what? hmmm?
4. Booze! Makes total sense
5. The Death industry – Baby boomers need burial plots, funeral service, caskets and other essentials. Morbid, but true.
6. Health Industry – Who knows if we’ll get universal health care next year. Who knows how the health industry feels about this?**
7. Gambling – Vegas is up. As usual, the house always wins
8. The Repo man! – This is obvious. What a great job! Where do I sign up?
9. Discount retailers – Walmart, dollar stores etc. Nothing says lovin’ like no-name snacks and rollbacks
10. The super rich – they’re still rich and Prada, Hermes etc saw increases in sales in 2008. Bastards.
**Total sidetrack about uni health care… but I can’t stop thinking, “That would mean that the DMV takes care of my Pap Smear”. That really freaks me out. It’s a bad experience already but add to it the bureaucracy, paperwork and lines? No thanks. I hope this frown turns upside-down but currently, I want the government out of my paper gown. (And 90% of my friends want universal health care and give valid reasons for it. It’s a bone of contention over meals). On a happier note, if we had health care covered, then we’d have more disposable income! Take that JP Morgan!
I’ve been following how retail has been doing over the last few months and it seems that the outlook hasn’t been so good even with the retailers, big and small, being optimistic.
It’s hard to believe that retailers see the weekend after thanksgiving as a barometer for their sales for the rest of the year. The holidays make up 25-40% of their annual sales.
“… both ShopperTrak and the National Retail Federation said Friday was a reminder that shopping remained an American pastime. ShopperTrak said foot traffic was up almost 2 percent, though its estimate for the full holiday season is a nearly 10 percent plunge in sales compared with last year.”
New York Times, November 30, 2008
As a former small business brick and mortar shop owner, I can say that December made up 50% of my sales… I never looked at the three days after as a barometer. I couldn’t give you an idea of how the year was going until I was toward the end of December. I’m glad I’m not in business this year because specialty stores are getting hit, hard. With Old Navy selling scarves for $1, Target selling home decor for 40% off, the competition is fierce.
I frequent many blogs and many of the small business are saying “We’re going to make it!” this season. Statements like “I’m just not going to participate in this slump! If I ignore it, it will go away!” are coming from some seriously misguided store owners. I’m reading half-baked marketing strategies, over-the-top customer service tips and advice… including picking up your customers in limos. There are a lot of “you go, girl!” stories, and not enough solid advice. I think the people making the money this year with be business and life coaches. The bottom line is, you have to have great prices. Don’t expect to make much money in this spending environment. Cut your overhead down and slash prices. Sitting on merchandise is the worst thing you can do right now, and you cannot compete with the big boys if you have similar merchandise. Be as optimistic as you want, it’s going to be a rough holiday for the little guy. I hope you have some funds in savings.
“Indeed, retailers such as Kohl’s (KSS), Wal-Mart (WMT), and Toys “R” Us are offering some of the biggest savings shoppers have seen in decades. No wonder. Consumers are under siege, struggling with sky-high credit-card bills, sinking home values, and even layoff notices. Consumer spending was already down 1% in October—the biggest drop since the terror attacks of 2001, according to the Commerce Dept.”
Business Week, November 30, 2008
Many stores closed right after September 11th, if you recall. Especially stores in areas that relied on tourism. If this drop continues, we are going to see more and more stores closing (See the list below of stores that are closing permanently, it’s almost shocking!)
And I just need to point out something… I’ve had a Washington Mutual credit card for several years now. It has always been at about 11% interest. Not bad, not great. The moment JP Morgan bought Wamu, my interest rate shot up to 24%. Upon calling I was told that they could just do that without any notice or reason. Hmmmm… I wonder how many other people are in this situation? And something else to point out, how many of the banks we are “bailing out” are going to raise their interest rates on credit cards significantly? That would be a slap in the face… it’s like giving your hand out to help someone who is falling off a cliff only to have them push you over when they get up. We better keep an eye on this! Having debt is almost embarrassing, but as a store owner, you usually are swimming in debt, even if it’s items on net terms. I usually had many things that I didn’t own outright. Having that pressure looming over your head makes running a business even more demanding. That’s what this credit crunch is all about. Too much credit being replaced by not enough. I hope the pendulum swings back to a neutral spot, soon.
Analysts predict the Black Friday weekend bump won’t last. “Holiday sales are not expected to continue at this brisk pace,” says Tracy Mullin, the NRF’s president and chief executive officer. Stores are likely to keep slashing prices, even as discounting further eats into profits. Observes Eric Johnson, a management professor at Dartmouth’s Tuck School of Business: “They are weighing that possibility with the much uglier possibility of having a lot of inventory left after Christmas, which could be a complete disaster.”
Business Week, November 30, 2008
The article also says that as the month of December goes on, more retailers will slash their prices. It’s a good time to be a procrastinator! I recommend waiting until the last possible minute to get that deal.
My brick and mortar may be closed, but I still have my website. Sure, when I moved and launched the site I was very optimistic that my thousands of loyal customers would follow me to the ends of the earth. Wrong. I’ve sent out the most competitive coupons, in store or online, that I’ve ever had and I’ve received very little buzz or sales. I’ve decided that moving forward I would go below cost on holiday and trendy items, and hold onto the timeless items until we get over the hump. I’m going to lose money. In the meantime, like other e-tailers, I am going to have to restructure my site, offer huge incentives and freebies to come my way. Find a way to stand out. Frankly, I have no idea what this strategy looks like, but it’s not going to happen overnight or before Santa comes around this year.
And Cyber Monday… the internet’s “Black Friday”. Will it live up to its hype? It’s technically already Monday… let’s see what Amazon.com has to say.
Not a lot of great deals, even in my gold box. Prices and sales are about on par with what I saw last year (I’m an amazon.com junkie). Last year I picked up a $699.00 GPS for $299.00. That’s what I’m talking about. Unless you want Alvin and the Chipmunks on Blu-Ray, there isn’t a whole lot of wheeling-and-dealing.
And, to keep that cliche train going, the company Ideal Bite came up with “Green Tuesday”. It’s “the green community’s attempt to connect holiday consumerism with conscientious spending”. And then there’s Geek Wednesday, Electric Car Thursday… I have to stop. (End gag).
‘Green Tuesday’: It’s “the green community’s attempt to connect holiday consumerism with conscientious spending,” according to Ideal Bite, a San Francisco e-mail newsletter that is spearheading the effort. On offer for one day only on Tuesday: Discounts of 20 percent or more from participating online stores on items such as organic wines, beeswax candles, handbags, jewelry, clothing, pet gifts and more. The idea in these tough times, said Ideal Bite’s co-founder, Heather Stephenson, is to “have people shifting their spending habits to companies that are going to be part of the solution instead of part of the problem.”
Ideal Bite, which was acquired in February by the Walt Disney Co., has 350,000 registered users. But you don’t have to sign up to get Tuesday’s specials. To check out the list of participating stores, go on Tuesday only to links.sfgate.com/ZFNC. If that doesn’t work, try www.idealbite.com.
San Francisco Chronicle, November 30, 2008.
Okay wait… wait… this is just too funny… The company that spearheaded “Green Tuesday” with all of its ideas for “green living” and ways to give back to the planet was recently purchased by Disney?!? ugh. Does anyone else see the irony in this? Do you think they give a rat’s, or mouse’s ass about the environment? Really? They have more Earth Day merchandise than ever deemed necessary. Think about how much merchandise they have, in general. My last visit to a Disney theme park I picked up a plush toy, hugged him and said… “I’ll name you, landfill”. Have you seen Wall-e?
So… we’ll see how everyone emerges from under this sad spending cloud. Come on Obama… make me a believer.
Other interesting related articles…
black friday crowds hit the stores
Consumer spending drops 1% in October on Durable goods
Black friday it has to be big, it has to be bold
online retail sales slip
Retailers pull out stops for black friday
Mastercard: Retail Sales struggle in early November
Another one bites the dust. Kind of.
Department 56 has been around a long time. They were a major staple for many gift stores. They have decided to cut their lines back to Christmas only. Showrooms will possibly close, jobs will be lost. Halloween is no more. Dang it, I was going to order from them next year!!
Eden Prairie, MN — Giftware vendor Lenox Group Inc. plans to scale-down its Department 56 wholesale business, according to a recent SEC filing. The plan involves discontinuing the Everyday, Halloween and Forchino collectible product lines and most of the company’s basic Christmas lines.
You can see the full article at giftsanddec.com
I’ve also received word from many of my account representatives that vendors are closing their showrooms at the Los Angeles mart, lines are being drastically scaled back and some vendors closed their doors completely. Many of my reps no longer have jobs.
I owned and operated a little boutique shop. I’m finding that many of them are closing due to overhead costs and lack of sales. Some have them have gone online. But the competition is fierce.
From my travels, I’m noticing that the gift industry is moving more towards the crafting industry. People are spending their money on craft kits, supplies and ways to personalize gifts. When you can’t spend a lot of money on a gift, you want to make it more special, personal and one-of-a-kind… or you make it yourself.
I wonder how the collectibles market will fare? Are people still adding to their collections, or is it a thing of the past?
That cute little store that you go to that’s overpriced and you visit to “get ideas”, they are either going to have to get really creative, competitive, they’ll close or they’re doing it for a hobby and profit doesn’t matter. (The profit doesn’t matter thing… it’s common!)
So, if you are thinking of opening a store right now, you have a lot to think about.